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Editorial: 5 Reasons Why Kinect Is Likely To Flop

The lackluster sales of such poor efforts to court the casual audience as Scene It? and You’re In The Movies made Microsoft realize that it will need something far more eye-catching to turn heads and take the industry by storm. Its answer to Nintendo’s triumphant Wii is Project Natal or Kinect, as it’s now called, a controller-free, motion sensing add-on peripheral. As thrilling and promising as Kinect is, however, I can’t help but notice that Microsoft’s all-out strategy of market expansion is riddled with some glaring flaws.

Following are five reasons as to why I think Kinect is likely to flop when it releases later this year.

1.) $150… Seriously?!

Kinect’s price is at the very forefront of why Microsoft’s approach at attracting a wider audience is muddled. The Redmond guys keep preaching to us that Kinect’s primary mission is to drive new console sales to new consumers and the software line-up unveiled at E3 definitely manifests that determination. What doesn’t dovetail at all with that strategy is the high price. Now, the entry cost for Kinect is only $149, they say. That’s true… for existing owners, the majority of which are most definitely not casual gamers. What this means is that the consumer Microsoft is aiming for doesn’t only have to pony up for Kinect, but also the Xbox 360 console itself which brings the total price to a significant $299. Taking into account that most of the casual crowd has already flocked to the Nintendo Wii, judging by the decline of the Wii sales, Kinect’s price is none too inviting.

Granted, there will be a million or two of early adopters who just want to get their hands on the latest new gadget or see the device as a fun thing to have around, be it for their families or their friends, but that number could have been a lot higher if Microsoft had opted for a lower price.

Having said that, whatever way you cut it, $149 is simply asking too much.

2.) Lack of clear direction

Before E3 2010, Microsoft had to choose between either using Kinect to reinvigorate the way existing core owners play games or using it to lure in a mass market and drive console sales to new heights. When the day arrived, Microsoft sent a crystal clear message: We are going after the casual slice of the pie! Though hardcore gamers were mostly disappointed, having previously thought Kinect could open the floodgates for some cool new ways to play their favourite franchises early on, it made perfect sense for the motion controlling device. Then came July 20, the day Microsoft confirmed the price to be $149, and the whole thing instantly made a hell of a lot less sense. It not only makes them look greedy but also clueless as to where they are headed. For someone who’s basically playing catch-up, it’s a very bold move to say the least. This disconnect between target audience and price makes me very doubtful of Kinect’s future.

3.) Software line-up too Wii-like

Kinect’s main advantage over the Wii is no doubt the ability to play games without any controllers. As Microsoft likes to say: “You are the controller.” If that’s the case, then why is almost every single Kinect title a duplicate of some Wii title? You have your mini-games collection ala Wii Party, a sports game ala Wii Sports, a Yoga game ala Wii Fit, and others. Where are original titles that would set Kinect apart from the Wii? Peter Molyneux’s Milo Project would be a great start towards genuine differentiation from the other products. As it stands, Microsoft gives consumers very little incentive to ditch their Wiis and invest in Kinect.

4.) Too late to the game

Since the Wii launched in late 2006, Nintendo has sold a whopping 72 million units! That’s nearly twice as many units Microsoft has been able to sell to date, despite a one-year head start. The integral part of Nintendo’s success story with the Wii is that it was the first one to discover a new market with very high potential and did its best to exploit it in many ways. After four highly successful years, the market has finally started to show signs of saturation, as evidenced by the drop in sales. That doesn’t seem to worry Microsoft though, who thinks that Kinect will spur new interest, even though it’s following in the footsteps of the Wii like a duckling. A lower price and a software line-up that actually offers a new, noteworthy interactive experience would go a long way to alleviate the consequences of arriving late to the market.

5.) Customer perception of Xbox brand hardly works in Microsoft’s favour

Everybody knows what an Xbox is by now, surely. Brand awareness is definitely there. However, it’s the way that it’s perceived that makes the job of Microsoft’s marketing staff that much harder. Since the dawn of the Xbox brand, the console has been regarded as a place hardcore gamers like to call home. The new Alienware-like look of the redesigned Xbox 360 console doesn’t help much either. Nintendo’s products, on the other hand, have always been known as family-friendly and the Wii simply augmented that reputation. With that said, the consumer perception of Xbox 360 as a shooters console will only serve as a detriment to Kinect’s performance on the market.

Why don’t you share your opinion on the matter in the comments below? In case you’re too shy, you can send me feedback at zan.toplisek@icgamers.com.

This is a column written by ICGamers’ news poster Zan Toplisek. The opinions expressed in the editorial do not necessarily represent the views of ICGamers as a whole.

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61 comments on 'Editorial: 5 Reasons Why Kinect Is Likely To Flop'

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Comment by Diago on 2010-07-26 13:43:53 | Reply

Kinect is a joke, an Eyetoy at best, which is so 1999.

Comment by plmko on 2010-07-26 13:46:51 | Reply

I’m unsure if the other points will affect the image of Kinect, however the point of it not having a strong line-up (beyond just Wii games) is a major concern.

Comment by Tony on 2010-07-26 13:47:46 | Reply

This is on n4g, you know a bunch of morons are going to comment now.

I personally don’t think it will flop, but that’s my views. If it sells the predicted 4 Million copies by March that accounts for around 10% of the user base in just 3 months.

I don’t think it could ever be as big as the Wii, but it sets the motion for something even bigger to come when Microsoft launch a next-gen console in a few years time. Hands free, voice control gaming can only get bigger & better.

I just don’t think $150 is too much money. Look at the millions of ipads, iphones etc sold at $600-1200 without even batting an eye. $150 is cheap especially since it can be had for $99 on eBay - Link

Comment by charlie on 2010-07-26 14:34:14 | Reply

Yeah, but almost everything that expensive is either portable or a console. Kinect is a console accessory, and costs as much as the concole.

Comment by cy on 2010-07-26 14:28:37 | Reply

I think it will flop. 1) There is no controller. On the Wii and PS3 Move, you have a controller which you use to interact with the game. Really, do you want to be flailing your arms and legs.

2) Price is too high. Consider $150 gets you a camera(motion sensor). PS3 bundle for $99 includes a camera and a controller.

Kinetic Minority Report controller could succeed if priced at $75 or less.

Comment by Rybakov on 2010-07-26 14:54:44 | Reply

can we be serious?
$150 price tag think about it IT COMES WITH A $50 game so realistically its 100…..otherwise the only thing that will kill it is call of duty players and shovleware that is all the wii has and nobody likes that the motion is the same price give or take cause you have to buy everything (including a camera) separately
either way kinect and move are stupid cause there motion control and a gimic and just like 3D it is a waste of time

wow, what a bunch of BS. only time will tell, and i guess is that your just full of BS. what do you think of that Zan Toplisek?

He’s prob thinking he should have listened to Tony

@ serg: You’re entitled to your own opinion, I couldn’t care less.

Comment by w0rms on 2010-07-26 17:12:30 | Reply

I don’t think it will be a flop but I don’t think it will be successful either. My wife wants a Wii. This will be the replacement for the Wii instead. Plus I have the original Xbox 360 from release I want the new slim one so I’m buying the bundle.

Comment by Joe on 2010-07-26 17:20:21 | Reply

You mean consumer perception, not customer perception. (article)

Comment by Steve Perry on 2010-07-26 18:11:21 | Reply

Does he? Does he really?

@Joe: Whichever works for you.

Comment by STEVE on 2010-07-26 18:21:32 | Reply

“The new Alienware-like look of the redesigned Xbox 360 console doesn’t help much either”

Are you kiddign me!!! I have heard nothing but great things about the new design! Including the sales numbers!!!
So why doesn’t help in your opinion?

To me it looks more hardcore than before and since Microsoft is targeting the casual gamer, that’s not a good thing. When you couple that with its reputation, it becomes a concern in my eyes.

And since you mention the sales numbers, those buyers weren’t casual gamers. They were new or existing core gamers, making it irrelevant to the topic (don’t forget, Microsoft is clearly focusing on the casual side).

Comment by The X-Files on 2010-07-26 23:32:19 | Reply

“They were new or existing core gamers”….”those buyers weren’t casual gamers”. How do you know those sales numbers are for hardcore gamers only? Do you have any prove to back up your statement? Those new and existing gamers are also casual too.

A very small percentage, sure.

There’s very, very few games for casual gamers on the Xbox 360 at the moment. So few that they aren’t even worth mentioning. You think they went out and bought the new Xbox 360 for just those? I think you know the answer… or at least I hope.

You have to keep in mind that casual gamers don’t want any Call of Dutys or Halos. They want Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Wii Play. Hence, absolutely no reason to buy Xbox 360 and the reason why Microsoft is going all out this time around. If there were any titles casual gamers liked on the 360, don’t you think Microsoft would capitalize on that?

Comment by Waldo on 2010-07-26 21:16:01 | Reply

I’d say that Kinect is probably wrong for the 360. Most 360 gamers play either Halo or Gears of War or L4D. Kinect isn’t really going to be much good in that arena. Much like the PS3, the Majority of games played are FPS or 3PS. At least Move will be able to support Shooters(demo of socom 4 is reportedly superb).

Unless Microsoft can create new game genres for the Kinect (milo & kate(providing it’s not fake)), it’s likely to have a short shelf life spare the trunk load of wii-like shovelware that’s heading the 360 way.

I’ve seen demo’s of people driving cars with Kinect. No, thats never going to work properly. Thats like playing cricket with a badminton racquet.

The hardcore 360 gamers (who probably make up 90% of 360 gamers) probably won’t even pay Kinect Lip Service.

Still thats just me.

Comment by truth on 2010-07-26 21:27:18 | Reply

Kinect shall go the way of the DODO eventually. hopefully so does xbox. it is the worst thing to have happened to video games since Atari caused the game crush of 1984. Why do I need an xbox when I have a PS3. You know millions shall always support Nintendo.

Comment by truth on 2010-07-26 21:30:36 | Reply

With that said the flairing or arms is as bad as the 1996 communication act Bill Clinton signed. As much as I love Clinton he should have Vetoed that nonsense. Reason why Sega died and entertainment sucks. First person shooters is what xbox is known for, only good alternative was Allan Wake. Where as Nintendo have it all, from ndventure, fps, best Rpgs, casual, retro and misc. Sony also tries and gives us the best power.

Comment by The_Glovner on 2010-07-28 09:52:38 | Reply

PS3 Fanboy much?

Comment by charlie on 2010-07-26 22:36:02 | Reply

Oh yeah another reason should be the release date. So close to X-mas, and the realese date of CoD7 and HALO:Reach . I think there is another aswell, so its either those 3 or kinect.

Comment by Anonymous on 2010-07-26 23:12:47 | Reply

I don’t agree with you. But instead of yelling out “you’re an idiot” like most people who don’t agree with you would probably do, I would like to make a deal with you. I think the consensus is that Kinect would be considered a success if it sold about 1.5 million units through the holiday season or about 3 million by march 2011. Here is the deal, and I will base it off the latter to be fair. If Kinect sells 3 million copies by March. I think you should write an article calling yourself an idiot and explain why you were wrong about the points that you presented in this article. If you take me up on this I would have a lot of respect for your opinion on this topic. I think your readers would find it to be an interesting wager also. so what do you think? Will you do that?

Comment by Jason Andrews on 2010-07-26 23:21:36 | Reply

Interesting :) - come on Zan, this is like Deal or No Deal…

I’m wondering if we should have a 5 Reasons Why it could be a success…

You’re quite an amusing individual, I’ll give you that :) .

I don’t agree that 3 million units sold by March 2011 would be considered a success for Kinect, really. I’ve noticed that some people (yourself included) don’t really understand the point I was trying to make here, so here goes again:

Microsoft craves a nice slice of the casual market. They don’t give a damn about hardcore gamers, as can be seen by their casual gamer-centered software line-up. Therefore, if, say, 3 million units are sold by March 2011, is that really a success if 90% of these buyers are early adopters and Xbox 360 fanboys/hardcore gamers? No, absolutely not. Why? Because Microsoft failed at appealing to a wider audience which is the very reason Kinect exists in the first place.

It’s about MARKET EXPANSION and not a silly game called “Let’s see how many units I can sell!”

Get it now?

Comment by AnonyMouse on 2010-07-27 10:49:38 | Reply

You’re quite a well articulated individual :) .

I guess thats why you write op-eds on a semi popular video game blog page. Unfortunately I’m not sure that math is your strong suit. Really, you don’t agree that 3 million units over a 4 month period would be considered a success? I’ll admit I’m one of those optimist about the hardware. As a tech buff I understand it will take time for the Kinect to reach its full potential. But thats just my opinion as a developer. Lets not get into arguments or semantics or any other conflict because thats not why I’m here. I think you could admit that 3 million in 4 months is a success all spin aside lol (lets be real here). Lets face it “Flop” means fail to meet sales expectations, and that was the thesis of your article. Whether it will appeal to the core gamer and/or expand the market is not the question (I personally think it will over time), that doesn’t take away from what it means to sell 3 million units. 3 million units in a 4 month period means success which is antonymous to the word Flop….. Do you get me now?

So again. I think that your readers will find it interesting if you took me up on this deal/proposal (whatever floats your boat). If anything it will get you more readers for being bold. What do you say?

It shows that you’re a developer and that you don’t know much about the business side of things. And before you say “And that’s coming from someone who writes “op-eds on a semi popular video game blog page,” gimme a break!” you should know journalism is just my hobby. I am actually a business student so be sure I know a thing or two about this.

“Flop” basically means to fail and Kinect will fail because those 3 million early adopters/hardcore gamers (only a few casual gamers is what I mean with this) may seem to some people to be a success but it really is not because once again it’s not the kind of people Microsoft is after. When making the strategy, Microsoft set out to expand the market, making it their crucial goal. Seeing how they are going about it, I really doubt they will accomplish that. If they don’t get casual gamers to buy it, Kinect is doomed.

I’ll agree that when a game sells 3 million units, it’s certainly a success, but Kinect is a peripheral and for Microsoft something a lot more than just that - they treat it like a new console. Therefore, simply selling 3-4 million units doesn’t really mean much when it’s not the people Kinect was tailored for.

I also see you fail to look beyond the first four months. When developers and publishers see their casual games don’t sell, due to the fact those 3-4 million units were gobbled up by early adopters/hardcore gamers, you think they will want to continue to develop for Kinect? Choosing between markets of 41 million (and this number will obviously increase by March 2011) and 3 million, which one do you think a publisher will pick? I thought so… And please don’t reply with “Yeah, but developers can make games designed for those buyers,” because we both know Kinect should steer clear of hardcore games, as it’s not appropriate as an input device for that kind of complexity.

Oh, and you can forget about that proposal of yours. Who in their right mind would want to do something like that and why? Do you see Michael Pachter write a blog titled “I’m an idiot for predicting that and that will sell that much”? Of course not! And it’s his job as an analyst to do that. I’m just a writer who wrote an editorial and it’s simply MY OPINION. If you don’t agree with it, that’s fine.

Comment by Pheng on 2010-08-21 15:54:42 | Reply

Hey Zan, you notice this guy is posting under “Anonymous?” I know this is a necro post but I had to point that out. If he really wanted you to post an “I’m an Idiot” article he could at least post his name so when/if Kinect flops we can call him an idiot. I’ll put your article in Layman Terms for those that don’t speak marketing like you and I: The Xbox360 S redesign compounded with Kinect is like having a Ferrari F430 Scuderia with a baby seat, it doesn’t make any sense. If Microsoft wants to get the Wii audience to buy their console don’t make the thing look like its gonna eat your children. Make it look all Hello Kitty like the Wii and give it a cute funzy name. Last thing I wanna add, There is no way in Hell I’m using my hand as a BR in a Halo on rails shooter because someone explain to me how I’m gonna walk around in an FPS game without a left analog stick to control my direction of travel?

Comment by Chickenfloss on 2010-08-22 07:40:28 | Reply

I’d like to put it in redneck terms. It’s like having a big truck with no mud tires. On a serious note…I think a lot of the games that incorporate kinect such as call of duty will have features like…you still use the controller, but kinect will allow you to act like you are throwing something and throw a grenade. Etc Etc..as far as Halo…Reach is officially the last in the series. Bungie is moving on to other projects.

Comment by Zan Toplisek on 2010-08-23 13:38:55 | Reply

@pheng: Hahahaha, nice analogy there! :D

Comment by Chickenfloss on 2010-07-27 01:26:39 | Reply

First time commenter. Woopdeedoo for me!…Anyway, I agree that the Kinect unit won’t attract many new casual gamers. This late in this Gen of consoles the Wii already has that market cornered. Casual gamers don’t think like other gamers. When they see the new 360 and kinect. It will intrigue them, but when they look at the price and the list of launch titles, the first thing they will think is; “My Wii already has those games and I am currently happy with that. Why should I buy this?” Microsoft, however, doesn’t answer that question.

I for one already have the new 360 model, and plan on getting Kinect. I am not a fanboy I just think it has a lot of potential(and I want to force push a droid). Although I am rooting for this product to succeed. If it does we can all benefit from future hardware. This is more of a testing phase and if this succeeds they will make it bigger and better. Upcoming titles have so much they can do with this. Not to mention there was a game demo that showed some dude with a toy rifle and the kinect used the toy as a target. Kid pointed where he wanted to shoot and when he pulled the trigger it fired. COD is supposedly going to be utilizing kinect and I feel it can appeal to ALL audiences not just casual.

I think Microsoft should really give this thing a broad market and not shut off their loyal customers and I believe that’s what they aim to do. It may also be the cause of why their aim seems so unclear. Although I disagree with your article in many ways, it shows your opinion and not other people’s. You have your own insight, thanks for the read.

No, thank YOU for taking the time to read it :) . It’s nice to see someone who has a different view on the matter and doesn’t call you an idiot for it lol.

Oh, and welcome! ;)

Comment by Chickenfloss on 2010-07-27 01:31:31 | Reply

Oh just wanted to add about the flailing arms comment above. I have a nintendo wii with around 40 games. Many of them have me flailing my arms, Wii Boxing for example. The only difference now is you won’t throw yourself through a tv. At least try not to. If they start requiring people to wear giant rubber suits similar to the “Wii Condom” I am going to be pissed.

Comment by FNG on 2010-07-27 01:45:41 | Reply

First off, all you 360 arcade owners,(the cheap ‘box w/o an hdd) need to get the hdd(hard drive) upgrade because the kinect software needs to be installed in order to work, 256 mb not gonna cut it. this, on top of the 150 dolla price tag, will surely mean that only hardcore gamers will buy into this technology. given that the box and ps3 are mostly for gamers anyway, the wii is likely to be the only system that casual gamers will buy. only hardcore gaming enthusiasts will be interested in the better graphics and hardware of the ‘box, and since casual games don’t need much in the way of graphics, the wii still wins in terms of price, as well has having a healthy stock of casual games already available.

Comment by FNG on 2010-07-27 01:55:08 | Reply

Still, if this Kinect stuff really takes off and some awesome games are developed for it, i might be interested in purchasing the 360 leet (already got the ps3, tho im prolly getting the Move as well)time will tell. So far, the list of games for the Kinect is pretty sparse. The only ones i found intereting were forza and fable 3, the rest being that casual gaming junk that i dont give a rats
a$$ about

Comment by zarbor on 2010-07-27 02:50:30 | Reply

Great article Zan.

I agree with you 100% except you can combine your first and second point. Unlike a lot of gamers, you understand the market and sound like you’ve been around long enough to see things like the 32X, VirtualBoy, Jaguar, etc. flop.

I’ve always believed that Microsoft is completely out of touch in a number of areas (like Zune, Windows Phone 7, Kin). Add Kinect to the list.

They will make some money on the donkeys who like to spend money on the new gadget. Hey Atari got some donkeys to buy the Jaguar. Nevertheless, its hard to take Kinect seriously. The ads for it have been awful and even the vids of people using doesn’t help its case.

Once again you hit the nail on the head.

Thanks, I appreciate it :)

Comment by The_Glovner on 2010-07-28 10:19:01 | Reply

I’ve got an HD Zune that I bought when I was visiting the in-laws, love it, would never swap it for an i-pod if you paid me.

Comment by Lance on 2010-07-27 05:16:47 | Reply

I was going to be going to pick up a wii in a couple weeks just for the family to have fun with and for when we have people over. I have an optoma hd20 projector shooting on a 115 inch screen. Personally, I’ve decided to wait until November. I wish it was cheaper, but I’ll buy it anyway. Microsoft hasn’t majorly let me down yet. I own two 360s for halo partys and such. I had an original from the original release, and got the red ring a couple months back (def. out of the warrenty period) and they replaced it without a problem. I went out and purchased an additional elite 360. Xbox all the way.

I agree with the Z man, totally accurate reasons, spot on. I am thinking of buying the Kinect but will wait and see if there are any good games. I have a Wii and a PS3 and I buy a LOT more games for the wii than any of the other 2. I use the Wii every other day since it’s part of my exercise program but not much else altho once the new Zelda comes out I’m getting that. I have already ordered the Move as I think that will “might” prove interesting. The Kinect won’t take off and may fail completely unless they get some good unique games for it.

Comment by The X-Files on 2010-07-27 09:03:40 | Reply

These arguments are just based on your personal opinions because somebody else just contradicts your claim of Kinect selling more than 3m within 3 months. I play Halo, Gears, Left 4 Dead.ect…and I don’t consider myself a hardcore at all. I play games just for fun not to look cool. Beside that, if you have a family like me, Kinect is the right choice to share that fun with your family. Your wife/girl friend will ask you for the dance or fitness game. Your kid(s) will ask for those Kinectimals, Kinect Sports, Adventures.ect. That is the fun part to share such a wonderful time with your family and the money will be well spent. Have you watch some of the videos posted on Youtube about the Project Natal Experience Cirque du Soleil event. There were some high profile celerities attended the event too. These are the new audience MS is going after. And with their mouth of words, Kinect is a hot toy. The attendances were also Wii owners too and one of the ladies also mentioned “bye bye Wii”. That shows how much attractive Kinect is to the casuals once they had tried it. Here is one of the videos about the event which I was talking about:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qG8DQYf1d9A

Comment by The X-Files on 2010-07-27 09:25:25 | Reply

These are just based on your personal opinions because someone else has just contradicted your claim by stating Kinect will sell millions till March next year. I play Halo, Gears, Left 4 Dead.ect… and I don’t consider myself a hardcore at all. I play games for fun not to look cool. Why I have to limit myself just for those core games while Kinect can provide me some fun time to share with my family. If you have a family like me, your wife will ask your for that fitness or dance game. Your kid(s) will be all over that Kinectimals, Sports, Adventures games. Kinect is worth the money if you can have such a wonderful time with your family to play together. Also, have you watched “Project Natal Experience cirque du soleil Event” videos on Youtube? There were some high profile celebrities at the event too. These are the new audience games which MS is going after. With their mouth of words, Kinect will be a hot toy. These are the casual gamers who also own the Wii. However, their interest in gaming will change once they have a chance to play test Kinect. This video shows how attractive Kinect was at the event. Even one of the ladies saied “bye bye Wii” at 3:23 mark:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qG8DQYf1d9A

This is an editorial, so yes, it’s simply my personal opinion. I even say so at the end of the article…

Comment by The X-Files on 2010-07-27 19:01:40 | Reply

Also, if these financial analysts are correct, Kinect could be Microsoft’s iPad or could generate 1-2 billion revenue for them. If so, how could you say Kinect is likely to flop? And Microsoft also indicated they will release Kinect to PC users too. That will sale million units to the tech enthusiasts. Of course all of these personal opinions are just baseless unit a product reaches to consumer’s hands.

http://www.informationwee...jhtml?articleID=226200003

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-20010374-17.html

Comment by Pat on 2010-07-27 22:00:28 | Reply

Most likely it is going to be a dud. No precision control.

Comment by Pat on 2010-07-27 22:22:29 | Reply

It does not look like that Kinect can figure out the hand and leg movements with reasonable precision. Figuring out jumping up and down is easy.

Comment by Pat on 2010-07-27 22:24:15 | Reply

I would definitely like to testdrive Kinect and see if it can handle multiplayers’ body and hand movements correctly.

Comment by Pat on 2010-07-27 22:45:45 | Reply

If someone wants to cheat and waves his hands in front of another player, can Kinect figure that out?

I have no idea, as I haven’t had tried it out yet. When I get to test it next month, that will be one of the first things I do :)

Comment by Pat on 2010-08-02 16:58:39 | Reply

Thanks.

Comment by Chickenfloss on 2010-07-28 04:16:15 | Reply

Ok, I am back just wanted to say I agree that 3 million units sold at launch is perfectly capable of being a flop. If, like you said, this is enthusiasts and hardcores eating up the latest hardware. What many fail to realize is this; Microsoft doesn’t make very much profit off of it’s console, and I doubt very much on Kinect. A chunk of the price tag is retail’s profit. Where they make their money is in game sales. They sell you kinect as cheap as possible in the hopes you will spend a lot of money on games for it. Therefore, if they aim to target “casual” gamers and make casual style games for kinect yet only hardcore gamers buy the accessory. That means no one will be buying the software to go with it. MS will lose money this way if they can’t pull in the new consumers they are supposedly aiming to lure. Therefore it will be a flop.

The Wii has sold around 30 million units in the U.S. That is a huge market of casual gamers, not to mention the over 20 million 360 owners. If the Kinect sells 3 million copies and fails to draw in a crowd before the enthusiasts stop keeping them afloat then it will indeed be a flop in the idea that if it was marketed correctly it could sell in the tens of millions. So, in this, I agree with Zan I believe his opinion could very well be accurate. As a matter of fact the only place I think I really disagree now that I think about it is the price. I think $150 is fair when you have so many people paying the same or more for guitar hero, rock band etc.

An example, families that have 3 or 4 kids. 4 wiimotes $200, 4 chucks $80, 4 Motion plus adapters $80. Talking 360 for 4 controllers with all the funtions for latest games. The kinect can support multiple players and is aimed for families that play together like this. I feel the price is nearly where it should be. Accessories are expensive these days. On a side note, I remember begging my mom for $1.50 to buy one of the used NES games from the local rental store…good old days…

Comment by SBelmont on 2010-07-29 01:08:06 | Reply

Ahhh….the next 32X.

Haha don’t say that - I bought that too :(

Comment by The_Glovner on 2010-07-29 09:08:38 | Reply

Do you remember the Amiga CD32 though?

I bought that, serious mistake.

Yeah very vaguely, I had a Philips CDi too because it played games & video cd’s, I thought it would outsell the pS1 LOL

Comment by The_Glovner on 2010-07-30 23:29:49 | Reply

Had the Dreamcast as well, shame that flopped had some great games but the piracy killed it.

But the CD32 was my worst mistake ever, had it for around 3 months before it dived and there was nothing else to buy for it.

Comment by eric on 2010-08-05 04:59:45 | Reply

great article. Im sorry but im a manager at gamestop and between cod black ops, halo reach, madden 11, fallout new vegas, ac brotherhood, fable 3, nfs hot pursuit, rock band 3, medal of honor and dead rising 2 coming out before xmas and gr future soldier, gears 3, mortal kombat, marvel vs capcom 3 and dead space 2 coming out before april 2011, im sorry but this will the best video game xmas since 2007. Both move and kinect will flop, and frankly since nintendo pushed zelda into 2011 the wii will have crappy xmas also.

Comment by Chickenfloss on 2010-08-05 18:44:47 | Reply

Not a fan of the gamestop manager here…don’t know if I should trust you. Jk, but not really… Anyway, not to mention GOW3 on April 5th. My hopes are that kinect will sell to all those 8-12 year olds on Halo that curse you before the game and then, after you kill them 30 times in a row, in the end lobby you have to hear them cry and curse more and call you a cheater. Kinect may make Halo Reach a better place to be. This is going to be an epic year, I think they were trying to build on to this year with kinect, but overall it could be a deadly strategy. The problem with “Good” gaming years is that it’s followed by 2-3 years of mediocre titles :(

Comment by Jernie on 2010-11-05 11:10:22 | Reply

Too be honest the Wii is a Snore and the Xbox is to easily broken… (god i wish ps had halo on it) This just looks like a desperation act that’s gonna blow up in their face… Hate to see the bill to this flop. And yes, its gonna flop for sure. 100% chance. not even the meager .1 percent.

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